• How our climate goals drive land demand and shape people’s lives

In order to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, governments and companies worldwide are pledging to reach net zero by cutting emissions and offsetting the rest, aiming to keep global temperature below 2°C. A key instrument in this effort is carbon sequestration through land-based measures, like reforestation and afforestation. By 2060, up to one billion hectares of land—nearly the size of China or the United States—would be required to realise those net-zero climate pledges.

« Net Zero & Land Rights », a new publication by TMG Research and the Robert Bosch Stiftung warns that these land-based carbon removal strategies could trigger a new global land rush, exacerbate existing land-use conflicts, threaten food security, displace local communities, undermine Indigenous Peoples’ rights, and amplify inequality. In light of this, the report’s authors call for a more equitable approach to land rights within climate policy.

• Land rights as the foundation for just climate action

Indigenous Peoples are key players in climate protection: they preserve around 80 per cent of global biodiversity while inhabiting just 22 per cent of it. Moreover, while Indigenous Peoples and local communities claim customary rights to approximately 65 per cent of the world’s land, yet only 10 per cent is officially recognised as formally owned.

With expert contributions from TMG Research, the Robert Bosch Stiftung, the European Environmental Bureau, Land Matrix Initiative, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Power Shift Africa, Rainforest Foundation UK, and the University of Melbourne, the publication critically illustrates the role of voluntary carbon markets, which are meant to direct investments into climate action projects. It reveals that land-based carbon offset projects are rapidly expanding across vast areas of land, particularly across the African continent wherein land tenure is often insecure. From the Congo Basin to Niger, local communities are facing growing pressure from carbon offset projects that lack proper safeguards. These developments are unfolding even as many of these communities have no formal recognition of their land.

• Concrete recommendations for just climate policy

The publication formulates clear political recommendations: It calls for the recognition and protection of legitimate land rights, including those based on traditional and customary systems. Governments, donors, and carbon market actors are urged to ensure that every project treats Indigenous and local communities as equal partners to forge inclusive climate policies; that projects only proceed after the “free, prior and informed consent” of local communities; and that gender equality and customary tenure recognition are embedded in all climate-related land use interventions.

The report also calls for the integration of land rights into national climate strategies, including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that all countries signatories of the Paris Agreement must submit to the UN by this September. Binding standards for carbon offset projects are needed to prevent land grabbing and ecological harm.